POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – In Europe, projections indicate that climate change could cause the land affected by wildfires to nearly triple annually by 2100, based on new research findings. The scientists anticipate a 192% growth in the yearly burned area under a high-emissions scenario associated with approximately 3.6°C of global temperature increase. This research follows the notable 2026 wildfire events that impacted regions of Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. Key climate factors identified in the study include hot, dry, and windy conditions.
Published in Global Change Biology, the study employed two fire simulation models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Researchers evaluated a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The lower scenario roughly corresponds to a 1.8°C increase in temperature, while the higher reaches about 3.6°C. Additional experiments maintained socioeconomic factors constant to better understand their influence on wildfire activity.
Under the low-emissions scenario, one model predicted an approximate 39% rise in the land area burned annually by the century’s end. A different model suggested a potential decrease due to its differing reflection of historical human impacts under lower warming conditions. Conversely, the high-emissions scenario models indicated considerably larger expansions in burned regions, particularly around the Mediterranean and across large parts of Western and Central Europe. Some of these regions have historically experienced relatively low fire activity.
Models Demonstrate Emissions as a Key Factor in Fire Extent
According to the study, future wildfire activity across Europe is heavily influenced by fire weather patterns and firefighting capabilities. Other factors such as population density, vegetation changes, and land use also play significant roles at regional levels. Maik Billing, lead author from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, which conducted the study, explained that the analysis distinguishes between climate-driven fire weather and human influences affecting fire spread.
Enhanced prevention, early detection, and firefighting efforts could potentially reduce the burned area by between 72% and 92% compared to scenarios lacking such measures. The potential for reduction is more substantial under the lower-emissions pathway and diminishes with increased warming. Despite ongoing improvements in fire management, about 55% of Europe’s fire-prone zones could still see increased fire activity under severe climate change. Thomas Hickler, co-author from the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany, noted this.
Firefighting Strategies Can Help Contain Wildfire Expansion
The findings come during an intense wildfire season in 2026 across Europe, characterized by dry conditions and extreme heat that fueled large fires. Southern Europe experienced some of the most severe outbreaks, but regions farther north also faced notable blazes. The study’s forecasts extend beyond the Mediterranean, indicating increased fire activity in parts of Western and Central Europe. Researchers attribute these patterns to changes in fire weather driven by rising temperatures and longer dry periods.
The study emphasizes that the projected 192% increase is not an unavoidable certainty but a modeled scenario based on the high-emissions pathway and specific assumptions. The authors identified much smaller increases under lower emissions and significant reductions when fire management efforts are intensified. However, even with enhanced management, fire activity is expected to rise in approximately 55% of Europe’s fire-prone areas under strong warming conditions. The analysis highlights emissions levels, fire weather conditions, and firefighting capacity as critical factors influencing Europe’s future wildfire landscape.