GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – In its latest update, the World Trade Organization has increased its 2026 forecast for worldwide merchandise trade expansion to 3.9 percent, marking a significant upward revision from the previous 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The WTO attributed this positive change to robust trade performance in the first half of the year, supply chain adaptations, and heightened investment in artificial intelligence. Despite major disruptions in energy, transport, and fertilizer sectors, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent during the initial half of 2026. The organization now anticipates a 4.1 percent growth in merchandise trade for 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence played a key role in merchandise trade growth during the first six months. Goods facilitating AI, such as semiconductors and servers, contributed to 47 percent of the global merchandise trade increase. Trade in these products surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also noted that worldwide expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to rise by at least 30 percent in 2026. The surge in demand for computing hardware helped sustain trade momentum, even as other sectors faced setbacks due to conflicts and logistical challenges.
Supply chains worldwide have adapted to pressures across leading commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas exports from the region dropped by 47 percent in the same period. Nevertheless, increased shipments from alternative suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil to about 6 percent, with global LNG exports falling only 1 percent. Additionally, container throughput globally rose by 3.9 percent through July, as trade rerouted through different ports and corridors.
AI-enabled goods bolster global merchandise trade
This improved outlook for goods stands in contrast to more subdued projections for services trade. The WTO has revised downward its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel. In the second quarter, international tourist arrivals fell by 0.8 percent, resulting in a marginal overall increase of just 0.4 percent for the first half of the year. Growth in travel-related spending also slowed considerably between the first and second quarters.
Other service sectors experienced more resilience despite challenges in travel and transportation. Computer services exports increased by 18 percent from the same period last year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Exports of financial services also rose by 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The WTO projects that commercial services trade volume will grow by 6.4 percent in 2027. It further forecasts global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Regional disparities persist in trade expansion forecasts
Projections for regional merchandise trade reveal significant variation across the globe. The WTO expects Asia to lead export growth at 9.9 percent in 2026. North American exports are anticipated to grow by 5.7 percent, with Africa close behind at 5.6 percent. South America is projected to experience 3.4 percent growth, while Europe is expected to see a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest contraction, with merchandise exports forecasted to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also varies markedly across regions in the latest WTO outlook. Asia is forecast to see merchandise import expansion of 9.5 percent, with Africa at 8.9 percent. North American imports are expected to rise by 1.4 percent, and Europe’s imports are projected to increase by 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports into the Middle East are forecasted to decline by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that the recent data reflect a resilient pattern in trade, while also underscoring varying levels of exposure to economic and geopolitical disruptions across regions.