ROME / RankWire.AI / – In its latest forecast, the Food and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal production for 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from the record set last year. Despite the drop, the total remains the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The current estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the July forecast. This annual decline of 61.1 million tonnes marks the most significant year-on-year decrease since 2018.
Production of maize worldwide is now expected to reach 1.309 billion tonnes after crops underperformed compared to earlier estimates. Heavy summer heat and dry conditions adversely affected yields in key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Meanwhile, official estimates prompted downward revisions for India and Paraguay. On the positive side, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, both countries forecasted to produce well above average maize volumes in 2026.
Forecasts for wheat production have been adjusted to 810.7 million tonnes, a rise of 4.2 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Improved yield expectations particularly benefited projections for Canada and Morocco, each increasing by approximately 1.5 million tonnes. Both Russia and Ukraine also saw upward revisions, contrasting with reduced forecasts for the European Union and the United Kingdom due to dry weather. Although there is an increase, global wheat output is still projected to be 3.8% lower than in 2025, making it the second-largest crop on record.
Maize setbacks contribute to downward revision of global cereal forecast
The 2026/27 season’s global rice production is anticipated to be 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record in 2025/26. Myanmar’s improved figures and strong main-crop yields in Sri Lanka supported the latest estimate. These gains offset reductions in rice output for China, the Philippines, and the United States, where plantings declined to multi-decade lows.
The FAO predicts global cereal utilization for 2026/27 at 2.965 billion tonnes, an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to rise, whereas wheat use is projected to decline from last year’s high levels. World rice consumption is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed demand remains significant, including barley consumption in China and maize usage in the United States.
Stocks of grains globally remain comfortably high despite forecast reductions
At the close of the 2027 seasons, world cereal stocks are expected to total 947.2 million tonnes. This figure is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous forecast but 1.8 million tonnes above initial opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio worldwide is forecast at 31.6%, slightly down from 31.9% in the previous season. Wheat reserves are projected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, while lower maize and barley inventories have slightly dampened the overall stock outlook.
For 2026/27, global cereal trade is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, a 1.7 million tonne increase from the prior estimate. Despite this, the total remains below the record volume achieved in 2025/26. The uptick is largely driven by increased maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade in 2026 is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, while overall rice shipments are still 1.9% below the record set in 2025.